Rapid Rise In Budget Deficit And Treasury Issuance Met By Foreign Selling Of US Bonds

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

The 12-month total of US budget deficit just crossed $1 trillion.  Treasury issuance is well over $900 billion.  Foreigners at the same time have been reducing exposure to US notes and bonds.  If the trend persists, this is bound to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 148.8k, down 82.7k. TLT (iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF) peaked at $148.90 on August 28, ending the week at $137.76.  Since that peak … Continued

Bulls, With Momentum, Need Several Non-Cooperating Metrics To Cooperate Better, Else…

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better.  In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower.  Non-commercials are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent.  Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 116.1k, up 31.7k. As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week.  This was a third straight cut … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 84.4k, down 15.3k. Next week, the FOMC meets.  Wednesday, the Fed is expected to ease.  Futures traders are betting with a 93.5-percent probability that … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 99.7k, down 22.9k. Most US economic data out this week continued to point to sluggish activity.  Retail sales in September fell 0.25 percent month-over-month … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 122.6k, down 41.1k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.75 percent) put in a higher low.  On September 3, rates fell to 1.43 percent, which was … Continued

Thursday’s Reversal Opens Door To More Strength, But No Signs Of Risk-On Just Yet

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices staged a massive reversal last Thursday, with more strength Friday.  This probably bodes well for bulls near term.  For this to translate into medium-term momentum, investors need to embrace risk-on. Real GDP growth has softened.  Four … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued