Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued
Major US equity indices are a stone’s throw away from record highs. They have done so without much help from foreigners and margin debt. Bulls deserve kudos, but then again, how long can this go on? US indices are within … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. No change in expected. But in the remaining four scheduled meetings, markets have priced in at least two cuts. The Fed has a juggling act in hand. The unemployment rate is near a six-decade low, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 366k, down 101.7k. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2.17 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield predictably attracted bond bulls. There was gap-down resistance from May … Continued
US corporate bond issuance is on course for a sharp snapback from last year’s seven-year low. Treasury issuance continues rapid growth trajectory, as it needs to keep up with growing deficit spending. Despite what we hear and read, there is … Continued
US stocks rallied strongly last week. Bulls enjoy momentum right now. That said, risk-on is not full-on. What transpires at 2890s on the S&P 500 can be a tell near term. May’s employment report was mixed at best and disappointing … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 4, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 467.7k, up 91.5k. Friday’s intraday low of 2.05 percent came pretty close to testing the September 2017 low of 2.03 percent. A breach of … Continued
Markets are aggressively beginning to price in at least two cuts in fed funds this year. It is a little too early, but the Fed is beginning to come around to this dovish scenario. It is easy to get convinced … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 28, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.2k, down 47.2k. Where is the bottom? The 10-year Treasury yield (2.14 percent) last Thursday sliced through support at 2.36 percent. This week, it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 423.4k, up 70.5k. There goes that support. Thursday’s 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.32 percent) sliced right through nine-year support at 2.40 … Continued