Exports’ share in U.S. GDP not as high as industrialized peers but increasingly important Fed’s rate-hike-this-year message significant tailwind for greenback’s relentless rally Fed officials not enamored of buck surge; how long before they start jawboning? There is a wide … Continued
Dollar has benefited from growth/interest rate differential among countries Recent spurt of weak U.S. data has pushed back rate-hike expectations to late 15 Dollar index retreats after approaching crucial Fib retracement; other levels to watch In 2014, the U.S. economy … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 31, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At some point, the streak had to end. For 12 months to February, U.S. non-farm payroll grew 200k-plus month-over-month. Consensus was for that … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: After what these traders heard out of the FOMC last week, they decided to step on the accelerator. Net shorts went up 67 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: What a week! In four out of the five sessions, the 10-year yield fell – down 18 basis points for the week. On … Continued
Fed gets rid of “patient”, but hints it will be patient in hiking rates Surging dollar impacts exports; Fed takes 2015 GDP forecast down a notch With economic data increasingly coming in weak, rate-hike odds this year next to nil … Continued
Dollar index signaling it is ready to at least pause? Stronger $ will adversely impact both exports and earnings Fed can ill afford to send hawkish signal post-FOMC on Wednesday Over the past three sessions, this is how the U.S. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 10. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: 10-year yields shed another 13 basis points in the week. Nonetheless, note owners continued to sell near 2.04 percent. And these traders, in agreement, … Continued
U.S. bond market and Fed lock horns as relates to trajectory of short rates Fed continues to drop hints it is ready to lift rates off near-zero levels Should that come to pass, it has potential to help vigilantes’ case … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 3. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: They continued to add to net shorts, and it has so far backfired. Post-jobs report Friday, the 10-year yield shot up 13 basis points. … Continued