Oil bulls must have breathed a heavy sigh of relief on Tuesday as crucial support held. But would the U.S. dollar poop the crude party? On its way to collapsing 76 percent since June 2014 through the February 11th low, … Continued
Spot gold is at a critical juncture. Since the metal troughed on December 3rd last year through the March 11th high, it rallied 23 percent. Even before that high, gold had been in a sideways pattern since it spiked 4.1 … Continued
Are we seeing a classic ‘stocks turn ahead of fundamentals’ phenomenon? U.S. equities in general bottomed on February 11th after a brutal sell-off in January. From late-December 2015 highs through the afore-mentioned low, the S&P 500 index dropped 13 percent … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The back and forth between the two camps within the FOMC continues. Last week, several members used public forums to express hawkish opinion … Continued
“Manufacturing and net exports have continued to be hard hit by slow global growth and the significant appreciation of the dollar since 2014… Low oil prices have also resulted in large-scale layoffs in the energy sector and adverse spillovers to … Continued
There was a bit of good news in pending home sales on Monday. The index jumped 3.5 percent month-over-month in February to 109.1 (Chart 1). This was the sharpest sequential increase in a year. Pending home sales are based on … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 22, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: This could not get any funnier. A week after the FOMC statement, and later Janet Yellen, Fed chair, shifted message from hawkish to … Continued
Last Friday, spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($41.62) produced what looked like a shooting star near its 200-day moving average ($42.77). Right above lied another layer of resistance at $43.50 going back to January 2015 (Chart 1). A shooting star … Continued
In the latest week, non-commercials cut net longs in gold futures by three percent period-over-period to 169,512 contracts. This was the first weekly reduction in eight weeks (Chart 1). The prior week’s holdings were the highest since February 3rd last … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 15, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Major central banks are in a race as to who can ‘shock and awe’ the markets the most. On January 29th, Haruhiko Kuroda, … Continued