Drop in gas price now vs. 01, 08/09 recessions
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U.S. corporate bond issuance on track for another record year
As of October, U.S. corporate bond issuance is on track for another record year — $1.45tn, divided between $1.12tn investment grade and $333.4bn high yield. 2014 will be the fifth consecutive year of $1tn-plus total issuance. It will more than … Continued
Duel between year-end seasonality (+ve) and QE end (-ve)
Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued
Exports’ share in GDP at record territory, how would firmer $ affect that?
Amidst relentless rally, excessively bullish dollar sentiment R between U.S. exports and dollar weak, but continual strength can hurt exports Previously, recession has tagged along with persistent drop in ‘share of U.S. exports in nominal GDP’ Since it bottomed early … Continued
Persistent lack of wage gains can ultimately have repercussions for economy
Steep drop in unemployment rate typically would suggest upward wage pressure Shrinkage in labor force takes bargaining power away from employees Corporations taking increasing share of national income vs labor It has been a while National Federation of Independent Business … Continued
Consumption or investment — choice today will decide fate tomorrow
Public highway and street construction spending flat last six years Average age of private fixed structures 26-plus in 2013, highest since 1954 U.S. ran up $9tn in cumulative deficit in 2008-2013, with emphasis on consumption We are aware how in … Continued
Rapid recovery in U.S. home prices probably negating mortgage-rate tailwind
Solid improvement in U.S. home prices comes with cost Peak bubble home ownership at 69-percent-plus anomaly not average Price weakness in recent months plus mortgage-rate tailwind unable to seriously ignite sales Leading up to the epic housing bubble in the … Continued
M/M order drop in biz capX proxy latest to show September deceleration
Six years into recovery, U.S. corporate capX potential yet to turn into reality September saw several macro/company data points in deceleration Latest being m/m order shrinkage in business capX proxy Five-plus years and counting. Still a no-show. The chart below … Continued
Falling trading vol in U.S. bonds can cause problem during times of stress
2007/2008 crisis fueled by excessive use of leverage Not much learned from that experience as U.S. debt continues to balloon Consistently falling trading volume can create problem even as primary market has gotten bigger As the chart below shows, we … Continued
NFIB September capX plans dash hopes of capX revival
Revised 2Q14 U.S. GDP estimates revived hopes of capX revival U.S. corporates have continued to disappoint as relates to adding capital NFIB capX plans in September show why that is not likely to change anytime soon When the preliminary estimates … Continued