Sideways move in stocks – just a pause or sign of fatigue after six-year run? Several different measures point to gradual buildup in complacency over the years Human nature not to want to leave party early, which is fine unless … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions. Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued
Central banks’ increasing role in deciding fate of stocks R between S&P and Shanghai index breaks down due to CB activism N/T direction for U.S. stocks look promising but not M/T, as QE morphine is lacking Did U.S. stocks go … Continued
Tremendous growth in student and auto loans (non-revolving) over the years First back-to-back drop in revolving consumer credit in February since June-July 12 Consumers holding back, even as they are saving more – not enough juice for U.S. economy The … Continued
GE stages massive breakout Friday on back of massive buyback announcement S&P 500 companies splurged $565 billion on share repurchases in 2014 As/when buybacks dry up, support zones become more vulnerable Before last week, GE shares had been on a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Interesting times, indeed! Mexico this week issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros. This is not the first time that nation has tapped … Continued
Energy stocks correlate with oil price; former holding up better in current decline Sector job cuts mediocre; oil and extraction hourly earnings another high in Feb Companies acting as if bottom is in for oil; investors buying into this optimism … Continued
Exports’ share in U.S. GDP not as high as industrialized peers but increasingly important Fed’s rate-hike-this-year message significant tailwind for greenback’s relentless rally Fed officials not enamored of buck surge; how long before they start jawboning? There is a wide … Continued
Dollar has benefited from growth/interest rate differential among countries Recent spurt of weak U.S. data has pushed back rate-hike expectations to late 15 Dollar index retreats after approaching crucial Fib retracement; other levels to watch In 2014, the U.S. economy … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 31, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: At some point, the streak had to end. For 12 months to February, U.S. non-farm payroll grew 200k-plus month-over-month. Consensus was for that … Continued