Amidst relentless rally, excessively bullish dollar sentiment R between U.S. exports and dollar weak, but continual strength can hurt exports Previously, recession has tagged along with persistent drop in ‘share of U.S. exports in nominal GDP’ Since it bottomed early … Continued
Steep drop in unemployment rate typically would suggest upward wage pressure Shrinkage in labor force takes bargaining power away from employees Corporations taking increasing share of national income vs labor It has been a while National Federation of Independent Business … Continued
Public highway and street construction spending flat last six years Average age of private fixed structures 26-plus in 2013, highest since 1954 U.S. ran up $9tn in cumulative deficit in 2008-2013, with emphasis on consumption We are aware how in … Continued
Solid improvement in U.S. home prices comes with cost Peak bubble home ownership at 69-percent-plus anomaly not average Price weakness in recent months plus mortgage-rate tailwind unable to seriously ignite sales Leading up to the epic housing bubble in the … Continued
Six years into recovery, U.S. corporate capX potential yet to turn into reality September saw several macro/company data points in deceleration Latest being m/m order shrinkage in business capX proxy Five-plus years and counting. Still a no-show. The chart below … Continued
2007/2008 crisis fueled by excessive use of leverage Not much learned from that experience as U.S. debt continues to balloon Consistently falling trading volume can create problem even as primary market has gotten bigger As the chart below shows, we … Continued
Revised 2Q14 U.S. GDP estimates revived hopes of capX revival U.S. corporates have continued to disappoint as relates to adding capital NFIB capX plans in September show why that is not likely to change anytime soon When the preliminary estimates … Continued
As company with 80k customer base, Microchip’s Friday 3Q14 warning caught majority by surprise Commentary from other tech outfits suggest things slowed down in September Too soon to say it is trend in making, but deserves close watch Did things … Continued
Fed has openly discussed benefits of wealth effect; now adds another tool – talking down dollar Six years into recovery post-crisis, U.S. economy yet to witness escape velocity Dovish FOMC message fails to ignite sustained rally in US equities These … Continued
In 12 years ended September 2011, gold surged nearly eight times Momentum reversed and was never recouped even though QE3 was launched late ‘12 Sitting on crucial support; lot depends on if U.S. $ takes break from 12-wk, eight-percent-plus rally … Continued