Facing lower earnings, several oil companies already plan to cut 2015 capex U.S. energy sector accounts for whopping one-third of S&P 500 capex Given drop in oil price, ‘15 S&P 500 EPS estimates too optimistic Oil’s sharp drop can reverberate … Continued
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2014 on track for 3rd successive year of $300bn-plus high-yield issuance; energy 15% of junk market By not cutting 30mn bpd production target, OPEC ready to lock horns with shale oil As both sides play game of ‘who will blink … Continued
My essay was featured in this week’s Evergreen Virtual Advisor of Evergreen Gavekal (@EvergreenGK). The theme is the amount of divergences and disconnects out there and what it could mean for the markets. EVA+11.28.2014
Velocity of money one of two components to determine GDP Six years into U.S. economic recovery, velocity remains way suppressed Inability of velocity to rise during monetary expansion raises disinflation/deflation risks It is troubling how this late into the cycle, … Continued
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As of October, U.S. corporate bond issuance is on track for another record year — $1.45tn, divided between $1.12tn investment grade and $333.4bn high yield. 2014 will be the fifth consecutive year of $1tn-plus total issuance. It will more than … Continued
Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued