The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May. Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued
It is not easy getting a handle on valuation dynamics. During good times, multiples rise to exorbitant levels, and the opposite happens when times are bad. The usual cycle of things. Come to think of it. At any time, value … Continued
Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another. First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued
In 1Q16, the S&P 500 large cap index edged up 0.8 percent. Not much. But considering that the year got off on the wrong foot, quickly losing north of 11 percent by January 20th, this was quite a comeback (Chart … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 7, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The Bank of Korea on Thursday eased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low 1.25 percent. The move … Continued
May’s jobs report out last Friday gave us a glimpse into how U.S. job creation has been in gradual deceleration. Now we have the latest JOLTS report that is pointing us toward a possible inflection point. To refresh, a mere … Continued
Last Thursday, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO, grabbed the headlines when he said someone was going to get hurt in the auto-loan lending market. “Auto is clearly a little stretched, in my opinion.” JPM does not do much of … Continued
2016 got off on the wrong foot. By January 20th the index was down north of 11 percent (intra-day), followed by a powerful rally off of the February 11th low. When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 … Continued
The correlation between financials and the two-year Treasury yield is tight. The latter tends to be sensitive to Fed action. In recent months in particular, the two-year has been on a roller-coaster ride trying to keep up with FOMC members’ … Continued
The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued