The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 13, 2016. 10-year note: More and more, we are beginning to hear from commentators – both professional and in media – that major central banks are increasingly hesitant about … Continued
Next week brings three important housing-related data points: the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index (September), existing home sales (August), and housing starts (August). In July, starts rose 2.1 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.21 million units, … Continued
There is not much correlation between the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index and year-over-year change in personal consumption expenditures – mere 0.12 going back to January 1978 (chart here). Nor is there any between consumer sentiment and XLY, the … Continued
In the August 15-31 period, there was not much of a trend among major industry/sector ETFs, with nearly half down period-over-period and half up (Chart 1). The real story, however, lies in how short interest changed on an index level. … Continued
In its rather brief history going back to January 1990, out of 6,725 sessions, there have only been 10 times when spot VIX jumped 40 percent or higher in a single session. That is how rare it is! Last Friday … Continued
Seven weeks of sideways action on the S&P 500 large cap index has been resolved. Last Friday, the index dropped 2.5 percent, for a weekly drop of 2.4 percent. This comes on the heels of an important breakout in July. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 6, 2016. 10-year note: Is the ECB reaching the end of the stimulus rope? This is not a consensus thinking, but the bank may very well be trying to … Continued
Bloomberg carried an article this Tuesday highlighting what it called shrinking cash piles at American companies. Cash and equivalents dropped to a median $860 million at S&P 500 companies in 2Q16. At the end of that quarter, cash ex-financial sector … Continued
March 20, 2008: 114.1 August 27, 2015: 112.6 September 7, 2016: 112.0 On October 11, 2007, the S&P 500 large cap index entered a bear market peaking at 1576.09. It would not bottom until March 9, 2009 when the tape … Continued
At first glance, major U.S. equity indices are at/near all-time highs, with suppressed volatility. Amid this tranquility, the cost of protection is on the rise, and hedge funds’ net shorts in VIX futures are taking an increasing share of open … Continued