The 3Q earnings reporting season just began. Revision trend has been down. Given the tightening monetary policy and the deteriorating outlook for next year, it is possible managements begin to lower guidance for next year, bringing into question the sell-side’s … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 11, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 340.2k, down 26.7k. September’s consumer price index, out Thursday, added to upward pressure on the interest-rate trajectory. Last month, headline and core CPI respectively … Continued
Last week, equity bulls owned the first two sessions, but only for bears to make a strong comeback as the week progressed, forming potentially bearish candles along the way. Right here and now, the bias is down. The two-day rally … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 4, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 366.9k, up 1.7k. Wednesday brings FOMC minutes for the September 20-21 meeting. The fed funds rate was raised by 75 basis points in that … Continued
Stocks rallied strong on Monday and Tuesday, and Wednesday’s weakness was bought. Digestion of these gains is possible near term. Medium- to long-term, sentiment remains very suppressed. Some rally that was! From last Friday’s close through Tuesday’s high, the S&P … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 27, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 365.2k, up 135.6k. Ae we there yet? Makes you wonder considering how the long end of the treasury yield curve has been behaving. The … Continued
Investors Intelligence bulls this week hit the lowest since February 2016. Back then, the S&P 500 soon launched into a sustained move higher. As of Tuesday this week, Investors Intelligence bullish percent dropped 4.6 percentage points week-over-week to 25.4 percent. … Continued
US equities surprisingly were surprised by Powell’s hawkish message on Wednesday. He seems very determined to bring inflation down no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy. This will have repercussions for earnings, which then will reverberate through … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 229.6k, down 123.3k. Hope springs eternal. One cannot help but think of this phrase considering how risk assets reacted to this week’s FOMC action. … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC, equities seem unsure about the next major move. At this stage, markets want Powell and team to take the fed funds rate north of four percent by year-end. If the Fed manages to sound even … Continued