Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 30, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.4k, down 10k. In the week to Wednesday, Federal Reserve assets dropped $31.4 billion from record $8.7 trillion a week ago. In early March … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.4k, up 29.3k. As of last Tuesday, non-commercials added more to their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. They are now most … Continued
With two sessions to go, November is on the verge of flashing a yellow flag on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. These indices of late have diverged with deteriorating consumer sentiment. In a seasonally favorable period, some key … Continued
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on Monday broke out of ascending triangle but only to reverse hard lower. That said, bulls have not quite given up yet. They continue to show up at/near shorter-term moving averages. Before this … Continued
As S&P 500 earnings staged massive recovery from post-pandemic lows, buybacks are back in fashion. Thus far in 4Q, the index is already up north of nine percent, pricing in a lot of seasonality optimism. As things stand, the index … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 294.1k, up 26.8k. Minutes for the FOMC meeting on November 2-3 will be out next Wednesday. At the conclusion of the meeting, the Fed … Continued
The S&P 500 keeps rallying to new highs, breaking down historical relationships with several metrics. It is possible the Fed’s expanding balance sheet is causing all this divergence. If it is, then the central bank will stop expanding its asset … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 267.3k, down 1.3k. Bond bears (on price) have managed to defend support at low-to mid-1.40s on the 10-year treasury yield. On Tuesday last week, … Continued
Last week’s breakout in the Russell 2000 is diverging from small-caps’ profit momentum. It is possible the index is pricing in elevated earnings estimates for next year. It is equally possible the breakout occurred primarily due to short squeeze. In … Continued
There were new highs all around last week. But after having rallied huge in the past month, major equity indices are not sending one uniform message. A reprieve is due, even as volatility is getting ready to perk up – … Continued