Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
Small-caps have rallied nicely year-to-date. Supposedly, they benefit the most from last December’s tax cuts and are also considered insulated from negative effects of a trade war. They now sit at critical technical juncture. Over the last eight weeks, the … Continued
SPY last week was rejected at channel resistance, coming up $0.63 short of surpassing the all-time high of $286.63 reached January 26. The path of least resistance is down. A covered put might help. There are interesting dynamics at play … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation. On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the July 16-31 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB ($59.54) bulls continued to defend a rising trend line from early April. At the … Continued
Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87. The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy. This … Continued
The top five in the Nasdaq 100 are done reporting 2Q. They have had their post-earnings reaction – mostly positive. This is occurring even as the index just got repelled at six-month channel resistance. If bulls do not put their … Continued
QQQ made an all-time high last week, but failed at channel resistance. With the 2Q earnings season winding down, shorts may have better odds. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) hit a new all-time high of $182.93 last Wednesday. It has had … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 509.5k, up 40.4k. Bond bulls have an opportunity. Remains to be seen if they can cash in on it. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.96 … Continued