Post-Brexit two-session sell-off in stocks was a clear risk-off. The S&P 500 large cap index dropped 5.3 percent in those two sessions. The subsequent four-session, 5.1-percent surge through last Friday was risk-on. Risk-off quickly followed by risk-on! The average investor … Continued
As far as U.S. stocks were concerned, Brexit was just a bad dream. A footnote, so to speak. On the S&P 500 large cap index, the intra-day high of 2113.32 in the session before Brexit hit stands, but last Friday’s … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 28, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On Friday last week and Monday this week, the S&P 500 index lost 5.3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield lost 29 basis points … Continued
Equity bulls put the foot down where they could possibly have. Support at 1990 on the S&P 500 large cap index was defended on Monday (Chart 1). This followed a post-Brexit 5.3-percent dive in just a couple of sessions. Using … Continued
From last week’s Thursday close through this Monday, the US dollar index jumped 3.4 percent. This was the sharpest two-session increase since it rallied 3.6 percent on September 29, 1992. That is how far back one has to go in … Continued
Last Friday, post-Brexit win, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 16 basis points to end the session at 1.58 percent. It fell as low as 1.53 percent at one point during the session. The drop ensured 10-year yields remained below support … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued
Many times in the past spot VIX spikes, but cannot hang on to the gains and reverses quickly. Chart 1 only goes back eight months, but this phenomenon goes back a lot longer. VIX just experienced one such spike reversal. … Continued
This week, May’s existing and new home sales data come out – on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In April, the former rose 1.7 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units, and has essentially gone sideways … Continued
If the past couple of weeks were an indication, bulls and bears are locked in a vicious tug of war over the near- and medium-term direction of crude oil. From the February 11th low to the June 9th high, spot … Continued