U.S. real GDP grew 0.7 percent in 1Q17. This was the weakest quarter since a negative reading three years ago. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts growth snapping back to 4.1 percent in 2Q17. Irrespective of quarterly swings, growth remains … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 16, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 240k, up 10.9k. Non-commercials nailed it. In the prior week, they had built net longs to the highest since December 2007, and were rewarded. … Continued
Wednesday’s rout in stocks is a reminder that when stretched too far a rubber band will snap. And when that happens, it will do so with plenty of energy. The S&P 500 large cap index has not had a one-percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 9, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 229.1k, up 49.2k. Back into the nearly six-month range … or near range support, to be precise. Since the election last November, 10-year yields … Continued
Volatility is creating a lot of buzz these days. There is none of it – both implied and actual. Bulls are hurting. Year-to-date, UVXY (ProShares ultra VIX short-term futures ETF) is down 71.6 percent, and VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 17-28 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq The composite (6120.59) is up 1.2 percent May-to-date, and is … Continued
If we just focus on tech stocks for a moment, one gets the impression that it is a very strong market. Right after the November election last year, tech stocks in general lagged. But they came into life as soon … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 179.9k, down 34.8k. Pre-FOMC decision this week, futures were pricing in 63 percent odds of a 25-basis point hike in June and 60 percent … Continued
Except for the Nasdaq composite, major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Russell 2000 small cap index, Dow Industrials, and the NYSE composite – all had a down March. This did not stop NYSE margin debt from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 214.6k, up 255.9k. Ten-year Treasury yields did indeed test support-turned-resistance at 2.31 percent this week. In fact, they rose all the way to 2.35 … Continued