Bond bears put their foot down near 2.4 percent on the 10-year T-yield. In the best of circumstances, they are eyeing a test of broken support at 2.62 percent – if not, definitely 2.50 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.43 … Continued
There is no shortage of divergences – be it in macro or other assets, including equities. Major equity indices peaked early this month but put foot down early last week. Medium term, building on it further can prove difficult. Overbought … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure. It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued
Before large-caps were sold early May, traders were already gravitating toward risk-off. Stocks have rallied the past couple of sessions, but there are still no signs of full-on risk-on. Eight sessions ago, on May 6, the Russell 2000 small cap … Continued
Major US equity indices took a beating last week, but, thanks to Friday’s reversal, they closed substantially off their lows, defending crucial support and the 50-day. Concurrently, VIX suffered a spike reversal. It is equity bulls’ ball to lose near … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the April 16-30 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Since peaking on April 17 at 58.50, XLB (54.40) has been down for four straight … Continued
Trump trade Tweet-induced selloff in the S&P 500 was bought hand over fist Monday, even as the spike in VIX was sold. Volume was anemic, so there is not much conviction in this – either when the S&P 500 was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
The S&P 500 just notched a fresh high. Volatility is as good as dead. Under this calmness lies early signs of life. Volatility is quiet, even dead. VIX (13.11) continues to loiter around the bottom end of a one-year range … Continued