XLV ($81.58) peaked at $84.31 on October 23, with the month producing a monthly reversal candle. Monthly indicators are way overbought. Longer-term, there is plenty of room for downside pressure. Medium- to near-term, things are a little different. After that … Continued
Small-caps have sprung back to life in recent sessions. Since peaking at 1514.94 on October 5 through the intraday low of 1454.17 last Wednesday, the Russell 2000 small cap index (1503.40) shed four percent. It was a slow drip-drip move … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent. Are they sending … Continued
There is divergence in the markets. Tons of it. Large-caps are going one way and small-caps the other. Ditto with transports and high-yield. The Russell 2000 small cap index peaked on 1514.94 on October 5, before trending lower in a … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the October 16-31 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.20) peaked at 59.62 on the 26th. There are signs of distribution of late. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 31, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 2.7k, down 150.9k. So Jerome Powell, current Fed governor, it is – the next chair. He is supposedly a dove – along the lines … Continued
If small-caps are a gauge of investor mood for risk- on and-off, then they are subtly beginning to lean toward risk-off. Of the four major U.S. indices – the S&P 500 large cap index, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq composite, and the … Continued
Equity bulls often assert that this is the most hated bull market ever. There is some – with emphasis on ‘some’ – truth to that, particularly if we focus on short interest. U.S. stocks reached an important bottom in January/February … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 24, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 153.6k, up 47.3k. FOMC meets next week. The October 31-November 1 meeting is the seventh this year, with the eighth, and final, scheduled for … Continued