The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Christmas last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Call it ‘dovish’ or ‘hawkish’, the Fed finally followed through on its first hike in nine years. The fed funds rate stayed zero-bound … Continued
The long-awaited liftoff is here. On Wednesday, the target range for the fed funds rate was raised to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent – from the previous range of zero to 0.25 percent. This is the first hike since 2006; … Continued
The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today. Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Until Thursday, the two-year Treasury note yielded 0.95 percent, near recent highs of 0.96 percent. Come Friday, it dropped seven basis points, to … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it? Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued
It can potentially be a momentous day. December 16th, that is. That is when the Fed would be completing its two-day FOMC meeting – this year’s last – and decide whether or not to raise interest rates. The last time … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 24, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to Thanksgiving last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: Chances of the Fed moving next month (FOMC … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 17, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hawks are in, doves are out. At least that is how markets are beginning to bet on the odds of an interest-rate hike … Continued
Two-year Treasury yields – supposedly the most sensitive to Fed policy – are acting as if they are beginning to price in a December hike. On October 14th, the two-year Treasury bill yielded 0.57 percent; by November 6th, the yield … Continued