July turned out to be an important month for the S&P 500 large cap index. More than a year after it peaked in May last year, the index reached a new high, rising 3.6 percent for the month. The July … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The Fed stopped short of signaling a rate hike near term. That said, the statement also said “near-term risks to the economic outlook … Continued
As of last Thursday (July 21st), as per S&P Dow Jones Indices, 123 of S&P 500 companies reported their 2Q16 results, 81 of them beat on an operating basis, 23 missed and 19 met consensus estimates. On a reported basis, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF, was punished for a 3.6-percent drop this week. This followed a parabolic rally, particularly after … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 28, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On Friday last week and Monday this week, the S&P 500 index lost 5.3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield lost 29 basis points … Continued
From last week’s Thursday close through this Monday, the US dollar index jumped 3.4 percent. This was the sharpest two-session increase since it rallied 3.6 percent on September 29, 1992. That is how far back one has to go in … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued
Many times in the past spot VIX spikes, but cannot hang on to the gains and reverses quickly. Chart 1 only goes back eight months, but this phenomenon goes back a lot longer. VIX just experienced one such spike reversal. … Continued
Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another. First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued