Last Friday, the first print of 3Q16 GDP was published. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent. Inventory contributed 0.61 percent to this growth, snapping five consecutive quarters of negative contribution. Similarly, exports’ contribution jumped to 1.17 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 25, 2016. 10-year note: Rates are rising. From 1.34 percent on July 6 this year to 1.88 percent on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield has come a long way. In … Continued
Having rallied seven-plus percent in the past five months, there is a spring in the US dollar index’s step, but it is unlikely to break out of a year-and-a-half range any time soon. The two-year Treasury yield tends to be … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 18, 2016. 10-year note: Both China and Japan reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and bonds in August – the former by a whopping $33.7 billion and the latter by … Continued
Gold bugs were simply swamped with an avalanche of sell orders on Tuesday, with spot gold losing 3.3 percent. This was probably in the making. Ever since spot gold peaked at $1,377.5/ounce on July 6 this year, it had been … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 27, 2016. 10-year note: Once again, Mario Draghi, ECB chief, urged Eurozone governments to complement central-bank action. He was speaking before the European parliament on Monday. Mr. Draghi said there … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016. 10-year note: A steeper yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy. So when the Bank of Japan says it will target a steeper yield curve, what … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 13, 2016. 10-year note: More and more, we are beginning to hear from commentators – both professional and in media – that major central banks are increasingly hesitant about … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 6, 2016. 10-year note: Is the ECB reaching the end of the stimulus rope? This is not a consensus thinking, but the bank may very well be trying to … Continued
At first glance, major U.S. equity indices are at/near all-time highs, with suppressed volatility. Amid this tranquility, the cost of protection is on the rise, and hedge funds’ net shorts in VIX futures are taking an increasing share of open … Continued