Bulls Project Air Of Invincibility; For Contrarians, Sustainability Big Question Mark

posted in: Derivatives, Economy, Equities | 0

There is an air of invincibility among equity bulls. A contrarian-minded investor may find this uncomfortably lop-sided, but nothing says it cannot continue in a seasonally favorable period. The recent jump in investor sentiment is yet to translate into consumer … Continued

Frothy Can Get Frothier – Also Means Protection Is Cheap

Yet another week and yet another record in the S&P 500, although the Russell 2000 is not in confirmation.  Sentiment is complacent, some metrics frothy.  But it can get frothier.  This also means buying protection is cheap. The US economy … Continued

With Fresh Highs In Major Equity Indices, Momentum Lies With Bulls, But…

US Manufacturing has contracted for three months now.  Markets are not a least bit bothered.  They are hoping the Fed’s three rate cuts this year would boost a decelerating economy.  In the futures market, non-commercials are betting with record net … Continued

Thursday’s Reversal Opens Door To More Strength, But No Signs Of Risk-On Just Yet

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major US equity indices staged a massive reversal last Thursday, with more strength Friday.  This probably bodes well for bulls near term.  For this to translate into medium-term momentum, investors need to embrace risk-on. Real GDP growth has softened.  Four … Continued

Consumers Beginning To Bite More Than They Can Chew

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. consumers are alive and well.  There is both good and bad in this – good now but potentially bad down the road. Consumer spending in December rose 0.4 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $13.7 trillion.  … Continued

XLY Weekly In-The-Money Naked Call Write

The importance of consumers in the U.S. economy cannot be stressed enough.  Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) accounted for 68.6 percent of gross domestic product in the third quarter.  Five decades ago, PCE’s share was nine points lower. Put another … Continued

More And More Older Americans Working Versus Sluggish Consumer Spending

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

One of the hallmarks of the current U.S. recovery has been conflicting signals coming out of the job market. The unemployment rate is low – nearly cut in half from 10 percent in October 2009 to 5.1 percent in August.  … Continued

Any Connection Between ZIRP And U.S. Consumer Spending?

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. consumer spending, accounting for >2/3rds of economy, key to growth Over last eight years, bank deposits have grown 80 percent But interest income suppressed due to ZIRP Do consumers always benefit from low interest rates?  At first glance, that … Continued