CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 72.3k, down 14.7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.73 percent) is itching to break out of a five-and-a-half-month rectangle between 0.57 percent and 0.74 percent. … Continued

V-Shape Recovery In S&P 500, Not In Economy – How Russell 2K Behaves Around 1600+ Probably More Important

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Economic data are coming in mixed after recent lows. In the aggregate, there is no V as far as the economy is concerned. In contrast, the S&P 500 completed a perfect V, which came about over six months. As things … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 5.5k, down 86.6k. The 10-year treasury yield (0.71 percent) had a strong week, up 15 basis points, but not enough for a range breakout. … Continued

Euro Rallies For 4 ½ Months, Breaks Out Of 12-Year Trend Line, And Runs Into 17-Year Resistance

The euro just broke out of a falling trend line from April 2008.  It has rallied the past four and a half months, pushing the daily and weekly in particular into overbought territory.  In the futures market, non-commercials, in the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 92.1k, up 18.9k. The Fed’s balance sheet peaked in the week to June 10 at $7.17 trillion, up nearly $3 trillion in three months.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.1k, up 14.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.63 percent) continues to bounce along the lower bound of a four-month range between 0.73 percent and … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 19, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 93.1k, down 58.4k. This data is a little outdated, but foreigners were big sellers of Treasury securities in March.  On a net basis, they … Continued

Tech Rally Propelled By Short Squeeze – For Now, Relief Awaits Bruised Shorts

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Since March lows, large-caps led, and tech led the large-caps.  Short squeeze helped.  Amidst signs of distribution in the Nasdaq 100 the past several sessions, relief likely awaits bruised shorts near term. Shorts have gotten squeezed – for the most … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 34.1k, down 36.7k. The FOMC meets next week.  A two-day meeting begins Tuesday.  This comes after March’s hectic schedule which included two unscheduled meetings.  … Continued