There is already a debate going on as to if a new bull market has begun. What is more important at this stage is if last week’s low holds, as stocks likely come under pressure near term. Regardless if a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 10, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 214.6k, up 57.9k. Next week, the FOMC meets. This follows a 50-basis-point emergency cut of last week, to a range of 100 to 125 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 398.9k, up 40k. The Fed for all intents and purposes has been preparing the markets for more liquidity to come. Since late September last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.9k, up 88.5k. One more week of additional liquidity from the Fed! In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 270.5k, down 32.1k. The Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The post-Great Recession recovery/expansion has been uneven, but jobs … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 302.5k, up 79k. The FOMC meets next week – on 28-29. This is the year’s first meeting. Markets do not expect the Fed to … Continued
The post-Great Recession recovery has been uneven. Jobs have been one of the bright spots. In the dying months of last year, job openings – both non-farm and small-business – weakened. It is too early to declare a trend has … Continued
Elevated multiples have not bothered equity bulls. In recent months, the Fed too has come to their aid. Investor optimism is dangerously elevated going into the 4Q19 earnings season. The 4Q19 earnings season kicks off this week. Banks and brokers … Continued
Major US equity indices continue to attract bids and are trading at fresh highs. Greed rules, with several metrics at nosebleed levels. In a seasonally favorable period, crazy can get crazier – at least that is what bulls hope. How … Continued
Buybacks by S&P 500 companies continue at an aggressive pace. This makes up for shortfalls coming from margin debt and money market assets. Help of late is also coming from the Fed. Buybacks snapped back up in 3Q19. After a … Continued