Last week, the FOMC slightly tilted hawkish. Repercussions were felt across assets. Then early this week, dovish members were out in full force, pacifying investors that monetary morphine is here to stay; major equity indices are back at/near their highs. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 15, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 34.3k, down 139.1k. Last week’s FOMC meeting pulled a surprise on markets. Members brought forward their projections for interest rate hikes into 2023, with … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 8, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 173.4k, up 118.6k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s fourth scheduled meeting; four more remain. Not much is expected to occur … Continued
Equity bulls used the Yellen dip last Tuesday as an opportunity to add to risk, not reduce. The Fed is making sure liquidity remains plentiful, and the short end of the yield curve is cooperative. In this environment, VIX on … Continued
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pretty much implied on Tuesday that the Fed is behind the curve, although she tried to walk back her comments later. The economy may be “overheating”, but the Fed is not ready to dial back its … Continued
Last week’s excellent earnings results from five of the top six US companies were unable to lift equities, which had rallied big into the reporting season. With major equity indices extended on several timeframes, weakness could be brewing. The Nasdaq … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 27, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 55.8k, up 40.2k. As expected, nothing much of substance came out of the FOMC meeting this week. The fed funds rate was left untouched … Continued
With subtle signs of distribution hitting major equity indices in recent sessions, results from the top six US companies – all tech – could not have come at a more important juncture. The 1Q21 earnings season is one fourth through. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 4.1k, up 50.2k. The FOMC left the benchmark rate between zero and 25 basis points this week. Also left unchanged was the asset buying … Continued
The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting later today. Rates on the short end of the yield curve are behaving but the long end is perking up. This is taking place at a time when foreigners are aggressively selling treasury notes … Continued