Covering XLE Short — For Now
If the past couple of weeks were an indication, bulls and bears are locked in a vicious tug of war over the near- and medium-term direction of crude oil. From the February 11th low to the June 9th high, spot … Continued
XLE’s Path Of Least Resistance Down — At Least Near Term
Since spot West Texas Intermediate crude bottomed intra-day at $26.05/barrel on February 11th and began to rally, resistance points have fallen one after another. First went $34-$35, then $40, followed by $42-$43 and then $47-$48 (Chart 1), rallying past both … Continued
S&P 500 Fails At Crucial Resistance, Bears Smell Opportunity
In 1Q16, the S&P 500 large cap index edged up 0.8 percent. Not much. But considering that the year got off on the wrong foot, quickly losing north of 11 percent by January 20th, this was quite a comeback (Chart … Continued
Decent Odds Of Rally Near-Term So Long As S&P 500 Does Not Lose 2040
Equity bulls are putting down their foot, and have near-term momentum on their side so long as 2040 on the S&P 500 is not lost. Off the April 20th high through last Thursday’s intra-day low, the S&P 500 lost four … Continued
Major U.S. Indices At/Near Make-Or-Break Levels, Gravestone Doji On VIX
Today completes one year since the S&P 500 large cap index made an all time high of 2134.72. On this anniversary, U.S. stocks’ near-term outlook is not as clear as is probably its medium-term. In the medium term, major indices … Continued
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 3, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the Bank of Japan shocked markets by not adding to its stimulus program. The yen jumped 2.4 percent. This week, the … Continued
Trying To Decipher Message From Stocks’ Horrible Start To Year
While there are some signs of near-term capitulation in equities – further raising odds of continuation of rally post-Wednesday reversal – it is perhaps also time to ruminate over why markets started the year all jittery and restless. From intra-day … Continued