Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 224.2k, up 57.7k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.5 percent) rallied nine basis points this week. Support around the intraday low of 2.36 percent eight … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 166.3k, up 2.3k. Mid-December last year, the 10-year Treasury rate lost a trend line from July 2016 when it bottomed at 1.34 percent. This … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the Mar 1-15 period in 10 S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (54.56) short interest fell to a seven-month low. Shorts probably feared a breakout at … Continued
Stocks rallied for three months in defiance of deteriorating macro data. By essentially putting an end to the tightening cycle, the Fed is acknowledging this. Stocks could be the next. What just happened? Many are probably asking that question after … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 164k, down 12.5k. The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady at 225-250 basis points. This was expected. What was not expected was the dovish … Continued
It is probably not coincidental that US stocks and Treasury yields peaked together early October. The 10-year rate is right near support and has room to rally near term. This should bode well for equity bulls who last week put … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 544k, down 71.9k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.08 percent) shed 12 basis points this week – now down 17 basis points from the intraday … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 25, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 756.3k, up 71.6k. Markets versus the Fed. Odds of a collision next year continue to rise. Post-FOMC meeting this week, the dot plot kept … Continued
After rallies that lasted a little over two weeks, selling began on major US equity indices last week right at important resistance. This likely continues near term. US capacity utilization in March rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.3 percent year-over-year … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 371.7k, up 41.1k. The Treasury yield curve once again is the talk of the town. The yield spread between 10- and two-year notes fell … Continued