Bill Dudley’s Monday comments, shot across bow of dollar rally?

posted in: Currency, Economy | 0

Exports’ share in U.S. GDP not as high as industrialized peers but increasingly important Fed’s rate-hike-this-year message significant tailwind for greenback’s relentless rally Fed officials not enamored of buck surge; how long before they start jawboning? There is a wide … Continued

U.S. personal interest income on decline; more seniors than ever staying in workforce

posted in: Economy, Equities | 0

Ratio of personal interest income to payments declines for three years now Persistent rise in number of 65 years and over who are employed Suppressed rates past six years no good news for seniors In his inaugural blog post on Tuesday, … Continued

XLY, RTH break out — will consumers splurge gas windfall?

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Retail sales soft in Jan – first back-to-back m/m drop since mid-12 Consumers not quite ready to do away with savings from low gas price XLY, RTH break out, betting consumers will end up spending gas windfall U.S. retail sales … Continued

U.S. consumer sentiment high but consumers salting away gas savings

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

U.S. consumer confidence has surged since July 2014 Decent inverse correlation between gas price and consumer sentiment No correlation between personal consumption expenditures and consumer sentiment Consumer confidence is soaring in the U.S.  Since July 2014, the Thomson Reuters/University of … Continued

10-year Treasury yield seems to want to head higher for now

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Technicals | 0

10-yr Treasury yield rises, diverging from loads of weaker-than-expected macro data recently There is no shortage of reason to argue for lower yield, even so sentiment can get extended Levels bond bulls will be drawn to if they believe rates … Continued

Breakout or fake-out? To find out, oil needs to retreat and find support at 47

Signs late last week WTI itching to move higher play out perfectly Oil as much a physical commodity as it is for investment/speculative purposes After 20-plus-percent move in four sessions, healthy if it retreats and finds support at 47 Some … Continued

Onus on bulls to regroup — little margin of error this week

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Major U.S. indices approaching/sitting on/slightly under critical technical levels U.S. indices give back Eurozone QE gains; key would be if European bourses do so U.S. bulls probably swimming against tide for now, but technical damage not irreparable U.S. equity indices … Continued

Capex hopefuls cannot catch a break

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

Setback in orders for business-capex proxy; down four consecutive months Inventory-to-order ratios, nowhere near previous peaks, trending higher Zero-bound suppressed rates probably impacting incentive to borrow The much-anticipated capex boom in the U.S. will just have to wait a while … Continued