Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 31, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 29.8k, up 143.1k. Twice in August, the 10-year treasury yield retreated after ticking 1.38 percent. This was just before testing broken-support-turned-resistance at low-1.40s. Back … Continued
As Jerome Powell indicated imminent tapering but not rate hikes, small-caps were bid up last Friday. The Russell 2000 is rangebound within a rectangle. A breakout can cause short squeeze. Should one occur, bulls need cooperation from the A-D line. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 24, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 113.3k, down 31.9k. It turned out to be quite an anticlimax – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s virtual speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, … Continued
Major US equity indices were down last week, but recovered from the lows, as dips were bought at important support. Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole this week is important in that a possible announcement of tapering of bond … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 17, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 145.2k, up 36.4k. Next week is the annual Jackson Hole symposium, where Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve chair, will speak on “the economic outlook.” It … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 10, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 108.8k, up 21.1k. FOMC minutes for the July 27-28 meeting are due out on Wednesday. In that meeting, it was stated that progress has … Continued
Small-cap earnings are coming in better than expected. The economy continues to churn out strong numbers. But small-caps, which by nature have larger domestic exposure, continue to trade within a five-month range. Near term, potential lower volatility can help bulls … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 3, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 87.7k, down 76.8k. A total of 5.7 million and counting. That is the number of non-farm jobs needed to match the pre-pandemic high of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 27, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 164.5k, up 75.6k. This week’s FOMC meeting was big yawn except for one thing. Members obviously left the fed funds rate at the current … Continued
Ahead of a crucial week in which the FOMC meets and the top six US companies report, large-cap equity indices broke out to new highs last week. The knock on this is that rangebound small-caps are yet to achieve that … Continued