Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 73.2k, up 44.1k. The 10-year treasury yield lost five basis points this week to 0.54 percent. Five-month support at 0.57 percent has been breached. … Continued
Between March and June, FINRA margin debt increased $105.4 billion, providing a nice tailwind for stocks. As a percent of disposable personal income, margin debt dropped to 2.8 percent in April, down from 4.3 percent in January 2018. Historically, peak-to-trough … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29k, down 29.1k. Tuesday, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting. This will be the fifth of eight scheduled meetings this year. There were two … Continued
Last week, the Russell 2000 jumped 3.6 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.8 percent. If investors are indeed moving away from tech toward small-caps, this is no good news for markets as a whole. The five largest US companies … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.1k, up 14.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (0.63 percent) continues to bounce along the lower bound of a four-month range between 0.73 percent and … Continued
The Russell 2000 Wednesday broke out of 1450s, although bulls were forced to retest the breakout in the very next session. Wednesday’s low-volume breakout comes against the background of a collapse in small-cap earnings this year and elevated optimism next … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 7, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 43.2k, up 12.2k. The 10-year Treasury yield is clinging on to support. It shed four basis points this week to close at 0.63 percent; … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 30, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 31k, up 24.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield cannot break the logjam. Since bottoming on March 9th at 0.40 percent, rates have pretty much been … Continued
Small-caps and large-caps went their own separate ways for a while, with the Russell 2000 peaking as far back as August 2018 and the S&P 500 in February this year. Since the trough this March, they have been on the … Continued
Bulls are not ready to give up just yet. At the end of last week, bears had a decent opening, as subtle technical weakness developed on major US equity indices. Before this could morph into something serious, bulls put their … Continued