Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 309.9k, down 91.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.51 percent) could be setting up for a rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Wednesday’s intraday low … Continued
Once again, small-cap bulls defended two-year support on Russell 2000. Oversold momentum indicators are itching to move up. But there is no sign of full-on risk-on just yet. There is plenty of overhead resistance where bears are likely to get … Continued
There is confusion in the markets. Several times this month, bulls tried to take momentum by the horns, but only to get gored, including last Friday. Bears have not had a smooth ride either. Amidst this back-and-forth action, major US … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 401.8k, down 12.5k. The German government Wednesday sold €824 million in zero-coupon 30-year bonds, at a negative yield of 0.11 percent. It offered €2 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 414.3k, up 23.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.54 percent) shed 20 more basis points this week. In fact, at the lows rates were down … Continued
Small-business optimism continues to remain near all-time highs, although several sub-indexes are diverging, including profit trend, which the Russell 2000 closely tracks. The NFIB optimism index rose 1.4 points month-over-month in July to 104.7. This was the 32nd consecutive month … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 390.9k, up 7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.73 percent) dropped to 1.6 percent intraday Wednesday – the lowest since September 2016. July that year, … Continued
Things are fluid – very fluid. Headlines are changing fast, so is market reaction. From currency to trade to Fed policy to the economy, traders are having a hard time keeping up. Technicals help particularly in times like this. The … Continued
Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully. A relief is possible near term. Medium term, though, more pain probably lies ahead. Last Wednesday, the day the Fed lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued