Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87. The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 509.5k, up 40.4k. Bond bulls have an opportunity. Remains to be seen if they can cash in on it. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.96 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 469.1k, up 30k. Speaking to Congress in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony this week, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, downplayed the risks posed by debt, saying nothing … Continued
There are some early signs markets are undergoing a subtle change – particularly as relates to the dynamics between small- and large-caps. Right after Donald Trump was elected US president on November 8, 2016, small-caps became one of the go-to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 10, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 439.1k, down 60.9k. News this week that the Trump administration planned to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of imports from China resulted … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 500.1k, up 144.8k. Minutes for the June 12-13 FOMC meeting were released last Thursday. The Fed raised interest rates in that meeting. This was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 26, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 355.3k, down 4.1k. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – rose 1.96 percent year-over-year in May. This is as good … Continued
Signs of fatigue are showing up in US equities. It began with large-caps, and now there are early signs it is spreading to small-caps as well as tech. The small-cap switch was turned on right after Donald Trump was elected … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 19, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 359.5k, up 23.5k. Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – … Continued