Recent equity advance probably squeezed shorts, who could get active again

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Shorts continued to raise bets, with short interest at multi-year highs October 15th reversal followed by sharp advance probably caused short-covering With QE gone and broken trendline resistance on S&P 500 intact, shorts could get active again Bulls probably took … Continued

Bulls on back foot, bears have spring in step

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

200-day moving average perceived by many as demarcation line between bull and bear market VIX surges past 17-18 and nears two-year-plus 21-22 resistance, but yet to retreat (Re) action at/near previous breakdown points to decide who wins out Defensive sectors … Continued

Bulls have one more opportunity to take crack at resistance

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls and bears lock up horns in quest to dictate near-term direction Last week’s lows saved on major indices, amidst very bullish engulfing patterns VIX once again rejected at/near 17-18; one more opportunity for bulls to take out resistance … Continued

Equities hammering out near-term bottom

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

Encouraging signs of near-term bottom VIX unable to break past 17; several other indicators grossly oversold Medium-term risks remain; SPX, DOW, RUT, NYSE have broken late-2012 trendline The Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite yesterday successfully tested trendline support going … Continued

Probable spike-peak buy signal from VIX near-term

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

VIX action yesterday constructive for equity bulls Medium- to long-term, equities have much more to go on the downside Near-term picture beginning to change, as beaten-down junk bonds and small-caps attract bids The morning gap-down in U.S. equities yesterday was … Continued

IWM seeks to stabilize around support; probably tradeable short-term

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Large speculators in Russell 2000 futures showing aggression, net shorts highest since June 2011 IWM short interest gradually on decline since end-July, stock seems to find support at 110 Too early to say support will hold medium-term, but a trade … Continued

Momo favorite until not too long ago, small-caps get no love

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Having lagged large-caps since March, small-caps have very weak technical underpinnings, and are getting close to a make-or-break level.  Non-commercial futures traders have astutely taken advantage of the decline.  Watch what they do. It has been a while this blog … Continued

Small-cap shorts getting squeezed?

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The answer to the question above is a probable yes. Twice since early March this year, small-caps have come under decent amount of pressure.  The first was a nine-week, 11-percent decline that began early March, followed by a nine-percent drop beginning … Continued

Odds of continuation — or a lack thereof — of divergence between large- and small-caps

There was an article on MarketWatch.com on Friday entitled “Why lagging small caps might not bring down the S&P 500.”  The title says it all.  The story seeks to justify why prevailing weakness in U.S. small-caps is not a cause … Continued