Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 623.8k, down 5.8k. This week, the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 525 basis points … Continued
Several leading stocks such as MSFT and AAPL posted new highs last week and then reversed lower. This took place just ahead of 2Q earnings results and indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 have had massive … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 629.6k, down 5.6k. The FOMC meets next week. Ahead of this, the fed funds rate was left unchanged in the June meeting, pausing for … Continued
Tech has surprised everyone with its out-of-the-park performance this year. Even within tech, XLK outperforms QQQ, as the former posted a new high this week while the latter is still below its November 2021 high. It turns out XLK is … Continued
The Russell 2000 continues to attract offers at 1900. Amidst this, a golden cross is near completion. Plus, a ratio between the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 is potentially nearing reversal, raising the odds that the latter begins to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 780.7k, down 20.3k. Non-commercials’ persistence is paying off. They are – have been – sitting on loads of net shorts in 10-year note futures, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 2, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 749.1k, up 8.9k. The Federal Reserve’s job is not getting any easier. On Wednesday, post-FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell dropped hints that they were … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2023 (data is now current, with publication this week of two weeks’ worth of data). 10-year note: Currently net short 571k, up 63.7k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 6, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.6k, up 39.4k. FOMC minutes for the December 13-14 meeting, out Wednesday, essentially repeated what the post-meeting statement and/or Chair Jerome Powell said in … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 321.3k, down 21.8k. Markets and FOMC hawks are on diverging paths. In the futures market, traders expect the fed funds rate to peak just … Continued