Equity volatility looks to be on the brink of a rally. The only question is if it will sustain higher or momentum will soon peter out as has been the case since its explosion in February-March last year. VIX shed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 19, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 544, up 156.6k. In the 12 months to August, foreigners purchased $3.8 billion in treasury notes and bonds. As recently as February this year, … Continued
Major US equity indices all had a positive week last week, but with a varying degree of success. The S&P 500 broke out of dual resistance with bullish marubozu on Thursday and Friday, the Russell 2000 was denied at crucial … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 156k, up 14.7k. Last Friday’s high of 1.62 percent on the 10-year treasury yield represents a lower high versus 1.77 percent posted in March … Continued
The 3Q earnings season begins in earnest this week. Leading up to this, the revision trend is up and stocks have come under a little pressure. Post-earnings reaction likely gets influenced by several variables, not the least of which is … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 141.3k, down 39.9k. Minutes for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting are due out next Wednesday. During the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell set the stage … Continued
On a 12-month basis, the US budget deficit may have peaked, but at the same time the Fed is also getting ready to taper. In the past, the 10-year peaked mid-way through QE. From this perspective, the March high of … Continued
Investor sentiment has taken a hit in recent weeks but can continue lower in the right circumstances, although a pause is likely right here and now, helping stocks. Stocks took it on the nose in September. The S&P 500 tumbled … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 28, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 181.2k, up 120k. In February last year, the 10-year treasury yield breached mid-1.40s, before tumbling to bottom at 0.4 percent in the following month. … Continued
The 2Q earnings season has gotten off strong. Stocks, having already rallied big into it, yawned. This is coming at a time when sentiment remains effusive and some of the tailwinds potentially turning into headwinds. VIX’s monthly chart could be … Continued