Investors Intelligence bulls this week hit the lowest since February 2016. Back then, the S&P 500 soon launched into a sustained move higher. As of Tuesday this week, Investors Intelligence bullish percent dropped 4.6 percentage points week-over-week to 25.4 percent. … Continued
US equities surprisingly were surprised by Powell’s hawkish message on Wednesday. He seems very determined to bring inflation down no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy. This will have repercussions for earnings, which then will reverberate through … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 20, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 229.6k, down 123.3k. Hope springs eternal. One cannot help but think of this phrase considering how risk assets reacted to this week’s FOMC action. … Continued
Ahead of this week’s FOMC, equities seem unsure about the next major move. At this stage, markets want Powell and team to take the fed funds rate north of four percent by year-end. If the Fed manages to sound even … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 13, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.9k, down 23.4k. The FOMC meets next week. A 75-basis-point hike is baked in, with futures traders assigning an 82-percent probability for that move. … Continued
After three straight down weeks, both large- and small-caps rallied strong last week. More could follow should non-commercial futures traders, who remain heavily net short S&P 500 e-mini and Russell 2000 mini-index contracts, are forced to cover. Last week began … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 376.3k, down 63.8k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had yet another opportunity this week to convince the markets that he and his team are … Continued
VIX took a dive on Wednesday after getting denied at 27.50s for several sessions. Concurrently, Investors Intelligence bulls plunged 15.4 percentage points over two weeks to sub-30 percent, and the Hedgopia Risk Reward Index is rising from oversold territory. Equity … Continued
Next year’s earnings estimates for US companies peaked in April for large-caps and in June for small-caps. Given Powell’s resolve to significantly reduce the current four-decade-high inflation – no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy – the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 30, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 440.1k, up 58.9k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday seemed to have done the trick. At the symposium, he strongly … Continued