The S&P 500 is sitting on crucial support, a decisive break of which could send bears into panic, and that could set up a decent opportunity for a counter-trend rally. The S&P 500 is hanging by a thread. Down 2.8 … Continued
Until recently, it looked like the Fed finally had the fortitude to take on inflation head on. Now, the message is getting blurred. Within the FOMC, for every Bullard, there is a Kashkari. Amidst this push-and-pull, late-January lows on major … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 174.1k, down 27.8k. Inflation has persisted much longer and broadened to more industries than the Fed initially – and stubbornly – expected. Benchmark interest … Continued
Foreigners purchased US stocks in November and December, but the 12-month total continued lower. The series comes with a lag, so it is hard to tell if they bought January’s low, particularly because the Investors Intelligence bulls-to-bear ratio this week … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield ended with a weekly shooting star last week, briefly rising above two percent. Only about two and a half months ago, rates were 1.34 percent. The 10-year may be ready to unwind at least some of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 201.9k, down 73k. The minutes for the January 25-26 meeting are scheduled for next Wednesday. This was the year’s first FOMC meeting, during which … Continued
In a matter of three weeks last month, the S&P 500 gave back 12.4 percent. A .618 golden ratio of that decline lies at 4591, which was tested on February 2 and again on Wednesday. The 50-day lies just above … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 274.9k, up 10.2k. Last Wednesday when the FOMC concluded its meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced there was “quite a bit of room” … Continued
January was ugly, with the S&P 500 down 5.3 percent. The January barometer is predicting a down year this year. But the track record of a down January is mixed; both 2020 and 2021 began the year with a down … Continued
VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. If history repeats itself, this probably means downward pressure on volatility, and higher stock prices. This is near term. Medium- to long-term, it will take time to heal the technical damage inflicted this … Continued