Amidst deteriorating U.S. earnings picture and geopolitical uncertainty, stocks resilient Major indices break out, but how much buying power did bulls expend? Breakouts deserve respect, unless they are proven false Are U.S. equities trying to tell us something? Almost out … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 10 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield tacked on another seven basis points for the week. Daily indicators are now grossly overbought. It is also right at … Continued
Sideways movement in margin debt a sign investors’ risk appetite waning? 35-year correlation between stocks and margin debt of 0.95, 2014 was only 0.28 In 2000 and 2007, peak in margin debt preceded peak in C&I loans by one-plus year … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 3 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield has risen from 1.65 to 1.94 in five sessions. But it also dropped 52 basis points in January, and that … Continued
U.S. stocks shake off early weakness before carving out major reversal Bulls step up to plate, refuse to give away support zones on major indices VIX and ISEE index suggest stocks’ path of least resistance probably up N/T If you … Continued
Major U.S. indices approaching/sitting on/slightly under critical technical levels U.S. indices give back Eurozone QE gains; key would be if European bourses do so U.S. bulls probably swimming against tide for now, but technical damage not irreparable U.S. equity indices … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 27 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Can we say squeeze? Since the end of December, net shorts have dropped 59 percent, even as the 10-year yield has collapsed 50 … Continued
Disinflationary/deflationary pressures intensifying globally Fed favorite core PCE inflation persistently under two percent despite three QE’s Bonds do not see inflation as far as eye can see, signal slowdown in activity; stocks continue merry way Monday morning, investors will learn … Continued
As oil price buckles, increase in talk of need to focus on S&P 500 earnings ex-energy Collapse in energy earnings important factor, but SPX ests were too rosy to begin with Sell-side struggles to wrap arms around energy repercussions; hard … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 20 (Tuesday). Change is week-over-week. Dollar index, gold and euro jump out the most. 10-year note: It seems non-commercials’ patience is wearing thin. On top of that, this has not … Continued