Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued
Global trade is on the back foot. US-China trade tensions can be partly blamed for this, but as far as US exports are concerned, the US dollar plays a role. The US dollar index has trended higher for nearly a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.3k, down 33.7k. On September 3, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 1.43 percent intraday, nine basis points from the record low 1.34 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 230k, down 70.5k. In the interbank lending market, there were two developments this week. The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 300.4k, down 77.4k. The FOMC meets next Wednesday. In the futures market, the odds of a 25-basis-point easing currently stand at 80 percent. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.9k, up 68k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.55 percent) rallied four basis points this week, but not before setting a three-plus-year low of 1.43 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 309.9k, down 91.9k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.51 percent) could be setting up for a rally – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. Wednesday’s intraday low … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 401.8k, down 12.5k. The German government Wednesday sold €824 million in zero-coupon 30-year bonds, at a negative yield of 0.11 percent. It offered €2 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 414.3k, up 23.5k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.54 percent) shed 20 more basis points this week. In fact, at the lows rates were down … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 6, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 390.9k, up 7k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.73 percent) dropped to 1.6 percent intraday Wednesday – the lowest since September 2016. July that year, … Continued