Bulls, With Momentum, Need Several Non-Cooperating Metrics To Cooperate Better, Else…

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

With momentum on their side, equity bulls hope metrics such as money-market funds, margin debt and even foreign buying of US stocks begin to cooperate better.  In this scenario, volatility, already suppressed, is vulnerable to another leg lower.  Non-commercials are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 231.5k, up 115.4k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.93 percent) bottomed on September 3 at 1.43 percent.  Since then, rates have formed higher lows, followed … Continued

Fear Giving Way To Greed – Rather Quickly

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 rallied strongly in the past month.  Investors Intelligence bulls expanded eight percentage points in the last three weeks.  In the options market, investors are taking off protection they bought earlier.  Greed has replaced fear.  Unwinding is the … Continued

With Fresh Highs In Major Equity Indices, Momentum Lies With Bulls, But…

US Manufacturing has contracted for three months now.  Markets are not a least bit bothered.  They are hoping the Fed’s three rate cuts this year would boost a decelerating economy.  In the futures market, non-commercials are betting with record net … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 116.1k, up 31.7k. As expected, the FOMC delivered a 25-basis-point cut in the fed funds rate this week.  This was a third straight cut … Continued

Nasdaq 100 Reaches New High Last Fri, S&P 500 Itching To Do So; Left Curveball Could Come From VIX Futures In Due Course

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

The S&P 500 is itching to make a new high.  The Nasdaq 100 achieved that feat last Friday.  Lowered earnings estimates for the third quarter went a long way, among others.  Bulls have momentum right now.  Medium- to long-term, massive … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 84.4k, down 15.3k. Next week, the FOMC meets.  Wednesday, the Fed is expected to ease.  Futures traders are betting with a 93.5-percent probability that … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 99.7k, down 22.9k. Most US economic data out this week continued to point to sluggish activity.  Retail sales in September fell 0.25 percent month-over-month … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 122.6k, down 41.1k. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.75 percent) put in a higher low.  On September 3, rates fell to 1.43 percent, which was … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 163.6k, down 32.7k. Futures traders this week reacted to September’s ISM reports by jacking up the probability of a 25-basis-point cut later this month … Continued