Several tech heavyweights, including AAPL and MSFT, report next week. With massive weights in indices such as the Nasdaq 100, their reports will matter. Earnings estimates have held up better than for the S&P 500 index itself. That said, they … Continued
The S&P 500 last week joined its peers to break out to new highs. More gains are likely in the near term. Mid-to long-term prospects are dependent on if the recent improvement seen in margin debt and equity flows persists. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 889.4k, up 102.4k. At an annualized $709.9 billion, December’s retail sales were strong, better than expected and set a record. January’s preliminary count showed … Continued
The December 13th Fed pivot lit a fire under risk assets, leading equity shorts to cover and ETF inflows to jump. Flows, however, began to turn negative as the new year began. This does not help the equity bulls, even … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 787k, down 45.6k. The 200-day moving average (4.06 percent), which coincides with horizontal resistance at 4.1 percent, is standing like a rock. Since this … Continued
The S&P 500 – a stone’s throw away from a fresh high – has gone sideways the past two weeks at just under 4800. Thursday’s CPI-induced selloff was bought. Persistently lowered 4Q23 earnings estimates can act as a tailwind for … Continued
Equities stumble out of the 2024 blocks. In the final sessions of December, the major US indices had either just broken out to new highs or were close to doing that. It remains to be seen if the weakness since … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 832.7k, up 27.7k. Amidst signs that the 10-year treasury yield is ready for a reflex rally, non-commercials’ net shorts in 10-year note futures went … Continued
Something is afoot in the bond land – in how bond shorts are viewing things. They have used the sharp decline in the 10-year T-yield post-December 13th FOMC meeting to aggressively go short these notes, betting on higher rates. They … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805k, up 117.4k. Non-commercials are not pulling back. Far from it! Their holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures went up another 17.1 … Continued