In November, margin debt was up four percent m/m, even as the S&P 500 jumped 8.9 percent. The latter is up another 4.7 percent December-to-date. How margin debt behaves this month will be telling. Equity bulls will need investor willingness … Continued
Consumer credit is at a record high, including auto loans. Already stretched, consumers are now having to deal with higher rates. Evidently, consumer sentiment remains suppressed. This has the potential to seriously impact retail sales next year – negatively, of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 687.6k, up 130.6k. In the last week of 2022, non-commercials were net short 344,209 contracts in 10-year note futures. This week, they held 687,572 … Continued
September-quarter buybacks by S&P 500 companies were decent, but the four-quarter total is on a decelerating trend. These companies will probably get an opportunity to buy their shares at a cheaper price next quarter. Investor sentiment is too complacent and … Continued
Small-caps rallied huge last week in reaction to the so-called Fed pivot. That said, no sooner did Powell deliver that message last Wednesday, leading to futures traders now demanding six cuts next year, than three different FOMC members came out … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 556.9k, down 79.5k. By making a sharp dovish turn, the Federal Reserve has let loose animal spirits in risk-on assets. This week’s FOMC meeting … Continued
Even though Chair Powell said it is far too early to declare victory, he and his team did exactly that yesterday when they caught markets by surprise by making a hard dovish turn. The dot plot now expects up to … Continued
Complacency among equity bulls is growing but not extreme yet. With the S&P 500 ending last week right at the July high and breakout odds rising post-FOMC Wednesday, options-related sentiment readings can soon begin to flash red. From July 27th … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 5, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 636.5k, down 48.9k. The FOMC meets next Tuesday-Wednesday. This will be the year’s last meeting. They are expected to do nothing. The last hike … Continued
More evidence came out this week that the labor market is in deceleration and more weakness lies ahead. Non-farm job openings tumbled 617,000 month-over-month in October to 8.73 million. This was the lowest since March 2021. The series reached a … Continued