Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 2, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 295.5k, up 95.6k. No sooner did the 10-year treasury yield breach low-2.70s than it was reclaimed. This support goes back to April. Ordinarily, once … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 19, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.7k, up 333. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the fifth of the eight scheduled meetings this year. The Federal Reserve will … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 12, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 108.4k, down 62.1k. There was some jawboning this week. On Wednesday, inflation measured by the consumer price index showed consumer prices in June surged … Continued
The Fed is using both conventional and unconventional tools to deal with surging inflation. This is bound to impact economic activity, which is already showing signs of deceleration. Inflation could be the next shoe to drop. Any signs of this … Continued
Corporate bond issuance is on pace to decline 14.3 percent this year. This comes at a time when corporations have been aggressively buying back shares. With six months in, US corporate bond issuance remains soft. In June, corporations issued $73.2 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 28, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 181.7k, down 46.5k. A couple of weeks after forming a weekly shooting star, it is looking more and more likely that the 10-year treasury … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 21, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 228.2k, up 22.7k. Jerome Powell this week testified on monetary policy in front of Congress. Just last week, after raising the fed funds rate … Continued
With a couple of tough weeks, both large- and small-caps last week suffered a slight breach of support, but not decisively just yet. Concurrently, VIX is flashing signs of fatigue. For equity bulls, if there is going to be a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 14, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 205.5k, down 60.7k. The Federal Reserve this week raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5 percent to … Continued
On a Fed decision day, both large- and small-caps find themselves at crucial technical juncture. They have both taken a real hit the past five sessions. In the wake of last Friday’s inflation report, markets now expect a 75-basis-point hike … Continued