The 10-year yield retreated last month from a potentially crucial spot. The supply-demand dynamics are in favor of bond bears, but this is also a well-known fact, hence may already be in the price. They at the same time are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 29, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 805.6k, up 110.7k. Non-commercials aggressively added to net shorts in 10-year note futures. This week’s count of 805,553 contracts is merely 5.6 percent from … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 22, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 694.9k, down 52k. It was a yawner to say the least – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at the annual Jackson Hole … Continued
The US is a credit-reliant economy. Many Americans tap credit cards to even cover essential living expenses. In June, revolving credit shot up 11.2 percent year-over-year to $1.26 trillion – barely under May’s record high. Interest rates on credit cards, … Continued
From its July 27 high through last Friday’s low, the S&P 500 quickly shed 5.9 percent. A relief rally looks imminent as equity bulls are not in a mood to let go breakout retest at 4320s. Not now anyway. Mid-to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 15, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 746.9k, up 55.2k. The Jackson Hole Symposium takes place next week. Several times in the past, the annual gathering has been used as a … Continued
Margin debt is tightly correlated with the major US equity indices, with the former up nicely from its low of last December, although the willingness to take on margin debt is nowhere near as strong as was the case in … Continued
With 2Q23 earnings season nearly over, S&P 500 companies are set to earn more than what was expected at the start of the quarter. This, however, is not so as relates to S&P 400 and 600 companies. Mid- and small-caps … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 8, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 691.7k, up 46.5k. Minutes for the July 25-26 meeting are due out Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis points in … Continued
Both large- and small-caps have failed to meaningfully build on their recent breakout. They were stopped at important spot and now risk breakout retest. From last October’s low to the July 27th high of 4607, the S&P 500 shot up … Continued