Medium- to long-term, Fed pivot-yearning equity bulls could be setting themselves up for disappointment given the Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer and the trajectory of the US economy and/or corporate earnings. Near-term, in an FOMC week, a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 25, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.3k, up 60.2k. The FOMC meets next week. A 25-basis-point hike is baked in. In the futures market, traders have assigned an 84 percent … Continued
Post-SVB collapse, community and regional banks have come under shorts’ attack. Bruised KRE, having sliced through the neckline of a head-and-shoulders formation last month, has more to go on the downside should the pattern complete. The number of commercial banks … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 18, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 680.1k, up 41k. Non-commercials added another 41,004 contracts to their already-elevated holdings of net shorts in 10-year note futures. The 680,081 count is the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 11, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 639k, up 18k. The 10-year treasury yield (3.52 percent) dropped from 4.33 percent last October to the low six sessions ago of 3.25 percent. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 4, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 621k, up 149.5k. The FOMC minutes for the March 21-22 meeting come out on Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 25 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 28, 2023. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.6k, down 99.5k. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in 10-year-note futures by nearly 100,000 contracts this week, to 471,578. In the week to February 28, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2023 (data is now current, with publication this week of two weeks’ worth of data). 10-year note: Currently net short 571k, up 63.7k. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood his … Continued
The two-day FOMC meeting ends today. Unlike calls from some major brokers not to raise, the policy-setting body in all probability will hike by 25 basis points to a range of 475 basis points to 500 basis points. More importantly, … Continued
It is an FOMC week this week. Fed funds futures expect the one-year tightening cycle to terminate with a 25-basis-point hike this time; by June, the Fed is already expected to ease, with 2023 ending at 3.68 percent and 2024 … Continued