The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 31, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On June 14-15, the FOMC meets. This is the year’s fourth meeting, and there will be four more left after this (July 26-27, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 24, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Was that a yay or nay from Janet Yellen, Fed chair? In an interview at Harvard University on Friday, she said that an … Continued
Later today at 1:15 PM, Janet Yellen, Fed chair, speaks at Harvard University. Markets will be on pins and needles waiting to hear what she will say. She is appearing in public in the wake of several hawkish comments/speeches from … Continued
Equity bulls are putting down their foot, and have near-term momentum on their side so long as 2040 on the S&P 500 is not lost. Off the April 20th high through last Thursday’s intra-day low, the S&P 500 lost four … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 17, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Last week, three regional bank presidents – Eric Rosengren (Boston), Loretta Mester (Cleveland), and Esther George (Kansas City) – … Continued
April’s retail sales released last Friday were better than expected – up 1.3 percent month-over-month and up three percent year-over-year. This was the largest m/m increase since March last year. Yet, the Treasury yield curve flattened in that session, with … Continued
A week ago last Friday, U.S. stocks opened lower reacting to less-than-expected rise in April’s non-farm payroll. As the session progressed, bids showed up, as traders began to price in lesser odds of a rate hike in June. Turns out … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 10, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three FOMC voting members were on full jawboning mode on Thursday. Eric Rosengren, Boston Fed president, said markets are underestimating the likelihood of … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 3, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the Bank of Japan shocked markets by not adding to its stimulus program. The yen jumped 2.4 percent. This week, the … Continued