Several Momentum Indicators Oversold, Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance Up

The ongoing selloff in equities has been quick and painful – similar to what transpired in February this year.  Back then, once stocks bottomed, they proceeded to rally strongly.  Will the current selloff evolve the same way?  Too early to … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 23, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 544k, down 71.9k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.08 percent) shed 12 basis points this week – now down 17 basis points from the intraday … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 16, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 616k, down 6.5k. Three weeks ago, non-commercials were net short 756,316 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures – a record.  They have since reduced … Continued

After Tumultuous 2 Weeks, Equities Oversold – Good Idea To Cover Short

What a week!  Stocks really took it on the chin last week, but by Friday there was some semblance of stability.  Several indicators are in deep oversold territory.  At least a reflex rally is due. During the carnage over the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 622.4k, down 117.8k. Back in July 2016, the 10-year Treasury rate (3.14 percent) bottomed at 1.34 percent.  Since then, it has made higher lows.  … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.2k, down 16.1k. Kudos to non-commercials for having doggedly remained bearish on 10-year Treasury notes.  They reaped a bumper crop this week.  In September … Continued

IWM Breaks Down, Daily Way Oversold – Likely Caught In Wide Range N/T

IWM is breaking down, losing one after another support.  Amidst this, the daily is grossly oversold.  A bounce can happen – or not.  This perhaps creates an opportunity for a non-directional trade involving options. Small-caps are taking it on the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 25, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 756.3k, up 71.6k. Markets versus the Fed. Odds of a collision next year continue to rise.  Post-FOMC meeting this week, the dot plot kept … Continued

Decent Odds $116 Support On TLT Is Not Breached At Least N/T

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

In the midst of a flattening yield curve, the 10-year T-yield is once again hammering on resistance at just north of three percent.  Just a month ago, these notes yielded 2.81 percent.  At least a pause is due, raising the … Continued