Bears are making a killing. Stocks have come under renewed selling pressure. The S&P 500 is very close to losing 20 percent on a closing basis. Amidst this, fresh from a 50-basis-point emergency cut of last week, the FOMC meets … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 25, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 274k, down 32.2k. There it goes! The 10-year Treasury yield (1.13 percent) pierced through the lows from July 2012 and July 2016 – 1.39 … Continued
With one session to go this week, VIX shot up in the cash market. In futures, non-commercials are still heavily net short the volatility index. In the past, the cash has tended to peak only when these traders are either … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 306.3k, down 92.7k. Once again, bond bears (on price) were having to defend 1.51 percent on the 10-year Treasury yield (1.47 percent). Most recently, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 398.9k, up 40k. The Fed for all intents and purposes has been preparing the markets for more liquidity to come. Since late September last … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.9k, up 88.5k. One more week of additional liquidity from the Fed! In the week to Wednesday, SOMA (System Open Market Account) holdings went … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 270.5k, down 32.1k. The Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The post-Great Recession recovery/expansion has been uneven, but jobs … Continued
The year is quite young, but things have not quite turned out the way bond bears were hoping they would. The 10-year T-yield last week pierced through trend-line support from last September. In due course, this likely opens the door … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 302.5k, up 79k. The FOMC meets next week – on 28-29. This is the year’s first meeting. Markets do not expect the Fed to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net short 223.6k, up 44.3k. Bond bulls and bears continue to fight over control of trend-line support from early September when the 10-year Treasury yield (1.84 … Continued