Things are slowing down. From job creation to real GDP, there are signs of deceleration. CEOs are beginning to sound pessimistic. Often, this can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Amidst this comes the sell-side’s overly optimistic estimates for small-cap operating … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 31, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 238.9k, up 13.8k. Bond bears (on price) defended the 50-day moving average on the 10-year treasury rate. It tagged 3.17 percent on May 9 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 24, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 225.1k, up 65k. May has one session to go before the month is over. The 10-year treasury yield is on course for a potentially … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 17, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 160.1k, up 74.1k. FOMC minutes for the May 3-4 meeting will be out next Wednesday. The fed funds rate was raised by 50 basis … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 10, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 86k, down 61.6k. It is probable the 10-year treasury yield made an important high this week. Rates touched 3.17 percent intraday Monday before reversing … Continued
Inflation is front and center, driving investor sentiment. April’s CPI report, out yesterday, proved expensive for equity bulls. The S&P 500 is down nearly 19 percent from its January high, even as the percent of stocks above the 50-day is … Continued
Blended 1Q S&P 600 earnings estimates took a nosedive in the week to last Wednesday. This preceded a deteriorating profit trend among small businesses since last October. The Russell 2000 has tumbled nearly 26 percent the past six months. This … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 3, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 147.5k, up 29.7k. “Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we are moving expeditiously to bring it … Continued
The 10-year treasury yield more than doubled in five months, completing a measured-move target of an inverse-head-and-shoulders breakout in early January. This is coming at a time when the Fed has signaled it will use both conventional and unconventional tools … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 26, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 117.8k, down 214.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This will be the year’s third, and five more remain after this. In the March meeting, … Continued