US Jobs Picture Strong, Hence Its Significance In Signaling Inflection Point

posted in: Economy | 0

US economic data of late have been coming in strong.  Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18.  This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters.  As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued

Amid Signs Of Fatigue, Potentially Bullish ‘What If’ For US Stocks

Arguably, US stocks are giving off some signs of fatigue.  The S&P 500 large cap index (2840.35) is still below its late-January high of 2872.87.  The Nasdaq 100 index (7395.49) in the week before was rejected at six-month-old channel resistance; … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 31, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 590.1k, up 80.6k. The first paragraph of this week’s FOMC statement contains the word “strong” twice and “strongly” once in describing the economy.  This … Continued

By Year-End, Fed Funds On Pace To Exceed Inflation Rate – That Should Begin To Bite

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

If the Fed moves in September and December, the fed funds rate will be in excess of core inflation.  In a leveraged economy, that should begin to bite.  The FOMC dot plot expects three more hikes next year.  This is … Continued

QQQ Retreats After Testing Channel Resistance – Covered Put Possible Strategy

QQQ made an all-time high last week, but failed at channel resistance.  With the 2Q earnings season winding down, shorts may have better odds. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) hit a new all-time high of $182.93 last Wednesday.  It has had … Continued

Feeble Rectangle Breakout Last Week, SPY Gives Out Signs Of Fatigue

With a feeble rectangle breakout and rejection at the upper end of a rising channel last week, SPY is giving out signs of fatigue. Things look good.  Even great, some might argue.  This Friday, the first print of 2Q18 GDP … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 17, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 469.1k, up 30k. Speaking to Congress in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony this week, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, downplayed the risks posed by debt, saying nothing … Continued

S&P 500 Breaks Out Of 2800, One More Hurdle Before Late-January High Is Tested

As 2Q earnings season got underway, the S&P 500 large cap index broke out of 2800.  If it were to rally toward its late-January all-time high, it has to first win over resistance around 2840. The S&P 500 (2809.55) faced … Continued