Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 31, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 234.8k, down 33.9k. Last week, the 10-year T-yield (1.81 percent) essentially … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 24, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 268.7k, up 23.3k. Last Tuesday’s intraday high of 1.95 percent was yet … Continued
S&P 500 companies are doling out record dividends. Because the index has rallied massively, the dividend yield continues to linger around two percent. This is still better than what the long end of the sovereign bond market is yielding, helping … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 245.3k, up 66.4k. Bond bears (on price) keep hammering on a potentially crucial level. The 10-year Treasury yield (1.92 percent) dropped to 1.43 percent … Continued
Amidst mixed signals in the economy and divergences with the bond market and crucial metals, among others, US stocks continue to rally to new highs. US inventories are building – again. In October, manufacturing and trade inventories rose 0.2 percent … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 178.9k, down 43k. As expected, the Fed stood pat. This week’s FOMC meeting – the year’s eighth and last – left the fed funds … Continued
Two weeks after the Russell 2000 breaks out, November’s data shows big improvement in small-business profit trend. Job openings is another data point worth watching. Small-business openings currently are diverging with the national trend. The recent breakout in small-caps is … Continued
The Russell 2000 has broken out. There are many reasons to doubt the breakout – ranging from elevated valuations to falling profit estimates to several soft economic data points. But as long as the breakout remains intact, bulls deserve the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 221.9k, up 76.2k. Next week, the FOMC meets. It is this year’s eighth and last meeting. Markets do not expect the Fed to move. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 26, 2019 (data was published Monday instead of last Friday due to Thanksgiving holiday). 10-year note: Currently net short 145.7k, down 37.8k. In the last nine weeks, the Federal Reserve’s SOMA (System … Continued