In the midst of a flattening yield curve, the 10-year T-yield is once again hammering on resistance at just north of three percent. Just a month ago, these notes yielded 2.81 percent. At least a pause is due, raising the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 18, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 684.7k, up 2k. The 10-year Treasury rate (3.07 percent) has once again reached a battle zone. The last time these notes yielded just north … Continued
The 10-year Treasury yield is at it again, trying to convincingly break out of just north of three percent. Shorts have done very well in the past year. They will mint money should a breakout occur. A lack thereof also … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 11, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.7k, down 73. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.99 percent) rose from 2.81 percent on August 22 to Friday’s high of three percent. At least … Continued
Continued contraction in corporate issuance of high-yield bonds is likely creating a supply-demand imbalance, helping the likes of HYG. Eight months in, 2018 corporate debt issuance continues to shrink. August saw issuance of $98.6 billion, made up of $83.4 billion … Continued
Even though trade tensions particularly between the US and China have heated up, small-caps – supposed beneficiaries of a trade war – have stalled of late. Medium term, downside risks are huge. In the very near term, it is a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 4, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 682.8k, up 152.9k. Bulls and bears went back and forth this week around the 50-day moving average until Friday when the 10-year rate (2.94 … Continued
As US stocks continue reaching new – and newer – heights, margin debt continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Equity bulls are riding the debt wave, even as bears point to the suffering it will cause eventually. FINRA (Financial … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up … Continued
US corporate profits rose to a new high in 2Q18, but prior quarters were revised lower by $739 billion. Second-quarter US corporate profits were published Wednesday. Profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption rose 7.7 percent year-over-year to a … Continued